Five key takeaways from the German election

The German federal election held on February 23, 2025, resulted in significant shifts in the nation’s political landscape. Here are five key takeaways:

1. Conservative Victory and Coalition Prospects: Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged as the largest party, securing 28.5% of the vote and 208 seats in the Bundestag. This positions Merz to form a coalition government, potentially with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which received 16.4% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (Ad) achieved a historic 20.8% share, becoming the second-largest party. The Times
2. Ad’s Significant Surge: The Ad’s rise to 20.8% marks a substantial increase from previous elections, reflecting growing support for far-right ideologies in Germany. This shift has raised concerns about the political direction of the country. The Times
3. SPD’s Historic Low: The SPD’s 16.4% share represents its worst electoral performance to date, indicating a decline in support for the traditional center-left party. This outcome may prompt the SPD to reassess its strategies and policies. The Times
4. Potential for a ‘Grand Coalition’: With the SPD’s reduced representation, a coalition between the CDU and SPD is feasible, potentially reviving the ‘grand coalition’ model. This arrangement could provide political stability but may also require significant compromises between the parties. El País
5. Implications for European Policy: The election results are expected to influence Germany’s approach to European defense and foreign policy. Merz has expressed intentions to strengthen Europe’s defense autonomy and address transatlantic relations, especially in light of recent geopolitical developments. Financial Times

6. Voter Turnout and Public Sentiment: The election witnessed a voter turnout of 74.8%, which is consistent with previous elections but still suggests a level of disillusionment among the electorate. Many voters expressed frustration over rising costs of living, particularly housing, which could have played a role in the growing support for both the AfD and CDU. The mood of the electorate indicates a desire for change, which is reflected in the shift toward parties promising a stronger stance on immigration and national security.
7. The Role of Green and FDP: The Greens, who had been in the coalition government in the previous term, saw a dip in their support, securing around 11% of the vote. The FDP (Free Democratic Party) also saw a reduced share, contributing to a realignment in Germany’s political power balance. With the CDU on the rise, these smaller parties may find it difficult to assert their influence in future coalition negotiations. Their support for policies on climate change and digital transformation could be compromised in a potential CDU-SPD coalition.
8. Germany’s Economic Focus: The economic situation played a central role in the election. Germany has faced growing inflation, especially in energy costs, which contributed to the public’s dissatisfaction with the outgoing government. With the CDU’s anticipated leadership, there may be a stronger emphasis on reducing taxes and implementing economic reforms. However, how this impacts long-term sustainability and social welfare programs remains to be seen.
9. Geopolitical Shifts: On the international stage, the election results signal a shift in Germany’s approach to foreign policy. The rise of the AfD, with its more nationalistic stance, could challenge Germany’s position within the European Union. This might impact its relationship with neighboring countries, especially in regard to migration policies, defense spending, and EU integration. A CDU-led coalition, however, is expected to maintain strong ties with NATO and advocate for greater European defense autonomy.
10. Implications for Merkel’s Legacy: The election marks a significant turning point, as it represents the end of an era following Angela Merkel’s long tenure as Chancellor. While Merz’s CDU is attempting to chart a new course, comparisons to Merkel’s pragmatic, centrist leadership will continue to emerge. How Merz navigates the challenges posed by rising extremism and the changing geopolitical landscape will ultimately define his leadership and legacy.

These takeaways reflect the complex and evolving nature of Germany’s political future in the context of changing domestic and international landscapes

11. Immigration and Integration Policies: Immigration was a central issue in the election, with many voters expressing concerns over the integration of refugees and migrants into Germany’s society. The CDU, under Merz’s leadership, is expected to adopt stricter immigration policies, focusing on controlling the influx of migrants and ensuring that they integrate into German society. The AfD’s rise reflects a broader public sentiment favoring tighter immigration controls. However, this shift in policy could lead to tensions within European Union countries, where many leaders advocate for more open borders.
12. Rise of Regionalism: The election highlighted a growing divide between urban and rural voters. While large cities like Berlin and Hamburg leaned towards the SPD and the Greens, rural areas were more inclined to support the CDU and AfD. This divide reflects a broader trend of regionalism that is becoming more pronounced in Germany, with rural areas feeling neglected by the urban-centric political elite. The new government will likely need to address these regional disparities in order to maintain social cohesion and ensure equitable development.
13. Climate Change and Sustainability Agenda: Climate change remains an important issue in German politics, despite the declining support for the Greens. Both the CDU and SPD are expected to maintain some focus on environmental policies, although the level of commitment may shift. While Merz’s CDU is likely to focus on pragmatic and business-friendly policies that balance environmental concerns with economic growth, the SPD may push for more aggressive measures to meet Germany’s climate targets. The outcome of this negotiation will significantly shape Germany’s energy policies in the coming years.
14. Social Welfare and Inequality: As the election results reveal a significant shift towards right-wing policies, questions around social welfare, inequality, and labor rights have become more prominent. The AfD’s popularity highlights growing concerns about the economic divide, particularly in working-class communities. The CDU may need to take steps to address rising inequality and the pressure on social services, as voters in lower-income sectors have increasingly turned to populist parties for solutions. Balancing social security with fiscal responsibility will be one of the major challenges for the new government.
15. Future of the Green Energy Transition: Germany has long been a leader in the green energy transition, but the new government may face challenges in maintaining momentum. The CDU has expressed support for cleaner energy sources, but it may push for a more gradual transition, taking into account the costs and potential impact on industries. In contrast, the Greens have advocated for a faster, more aggressive shift toward renewables. This policy conflict could lead to debates on how to best balance Germany’s climate commitments with its industrial and economic needs.

As the new government takes shape, these areas will continue to be key battlegrounds. The potential CDU-SPD coalition will have to find common ground on these complex issues, balancing progressive goals with conservative approaches to governance. How they handle these challenges will determine the trajectory of Germany’s political and economic future.

16. Digital Transformation and Technology: The future of Germany’s digital infrastructure and technological advancement is another critical issue. While the SPD has been pushing for stronger investments in digital education, e-governance, and innovation, the CDU has emphasized efficiency and deregulation to stimulate the tech industry. With Germany’s relatively slower adoption of digital technologies compared to other EU countries, this election result suggests that the new government may prioritize digitalization, but how they do so will be crucial. Whether this will involve greater public-private partnerships, or a more state-driven approach to infrastructure, remains uncertain.
17. Security and Defense Policies: Following the global security concerns raised by recent conflicts, including the ongoing tensions in Europe, Germany’s defense posture will be a key issue. The CDU has signaled a desire to increase defense spending and enhance Germany’s role in NATO, particularly in the face of Russian aggression and broader geopolitical instability. However, the AfD’s rise could challenge this trajectory, as they advocate for more isolationist policies and a reduced role in international military alliances. This could lead to tension within Germany’s political class and between the country and its European allies. A more robust defense policy could also have implications for Germany’s defense industries and military readiness.
18. EU Reform and Germany’s Role in Europe: Germany’s leadership in the European Union has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy. However, with the rise of right-wing populist parties like the AfD, there could be significant debates over Germany’s future within the EU. The CDU, traditionally a pro-European party, is likely to support reforms aimed at strengthening the EU’s internal cohesion and competitiveness. Still, the influence of populist and nationalist rhetoric might push Germany to take a more critical stance on EU policies related to immigration, fiscal discipline, and economic governance. This could lead to new debates over EU-wide reforms, including financial solidarity and governance structures.
19. Impact on Multiculturalism and Identity: The election results also signal an ongoing shift in how Germany views its national identity. With the increasing strength of right-wing parties, particularly the AfD, there is likely to be a greater debate over the values of multiculturalism versus a more nationalistic approach. The growth of the AfD, with its emphasis on “Germany first” and stricter immigration policies, has sparked conversations about the future of Germany’s multicultural society. Whether the CDU’s more moderate approach can bridge these divisions will be a key issue for the new government.
20. Impact on the European Economy: With Germany being Europe’s largest economy, the results of the election will inevitably have wider implications for the EU and the global economy. A conservative shift in Germany could result in more pro-business policies, which could invigorate Europe’s largest market but might also lead to tensions within the EU over issues like social policies, environmental regulations, and economic governance. Additionally, Germany’s stance on the European Central Bank (ECB) and fiscal policies will shape economic policy in Europe, particularly with inflation concerns and the recovery from global economic disruptions.
21. Shift in Political Strategy for the SPD: The SPD’s poor performance in the election raises important questions about the future of the party. The traditionally center-left party will likely need to reassert itself in the political landscape, possibly by reconsidering its coalition strategy and shifting its platform. The SPD’s loss is attributed partly to voter disillusionment over the coalition government’s handling of key issues like housing, social welfare, and immigration. Moving forward, the SPD may need to refine its policies to attract a broader base, especially in urban areas, or risk further decline.
22. Youth and Political Engagement: The election results also reflect a shift in youth engagement with politics. Traditionally a stronghold for left-leaning parties like the Greens and SPD, younger voters are now increasingly attracted to more populist and nationalist ideologies represented by the AfD. This shift could indicate growing discontent with the establishment and a demand for more direct action on issues like housing affordability, job security, and national security. How the new government addresses the concerns of younger generations could significantly influence future elections.
23. Legacy of Merkel’s Political Approach: Even though Angela Merkel is no longer in power, her political style and legacy still resonate within the CDU. Her pragmatic approach to leadership, often marked by consensus-building, has influenced the party’s current strategy under Friedrich Merz. However, with the increasing rise of populist and nationalist forces within Germany, there may be a move towards more decisive and assertive leadership in contrast to Merkel’s style. Whether the CDU can maintain its broad appeal while managing internal divisions between its conservative and centrist wings will be one of the defining questions of Merz’s tenure.

As the new government takes shape in Germany, these ongoing challenges and potential shifts will help determine the political direction the country takes in the coming years. With a complex and evolving political landscape, the decisions made by the incoming leadership will reverberate not just within Germany, but throughout Europe and the broader global community.

24. Energy Transition and Nuclear Power Debate: Another critical issue for Germany in the wake of the election results is its energy strategy, especially considering the country’s ambitious goals for carbon neutrality by 2045. The CDU under Merz is likely to push for a more gradual transition away from fossil fuels, which could involve a debate over the role of nuclear power. While the Greens have traditionally been opposed to nuclear energy, the CDU may be more open to a reconsideration of nuclear as a bridging technology to secure Germany’s energy future. This could create significant debates within the coalition, especially if environmental concerns clash with economic and energy security priorities.
25. Health and Social Care Reforms: Healthcare remains a pivotal issue for German voters, and there is pressure for reforms in Germany’s social care system, particularly following the pandemic. Rising costs of care, an aging population, and dissatisfaction with wait times and access to services are key concerns. The CDU may look to privatize some elements of the healthcare system in an effort to alleviate burdens on the public system. Meanwhile, the SPD, traditionally supportive of the welfare state, is likely to fight for maintaining a strong public healthcare model. The tension between efficiency and social welfare goals will play a central role in this debate.
26. Foreign Investment and Global Trade Relations: As Germany faces increasing competition from other global powers, the direction of the economy post-election will also hinge on how the new government handles foreign investment and global trade relations. Merz’s CDU is likely to advocate for policies that encourage foreign investments and strengthen Germany’s position in global markets, particularly focusing on trade agreements with China, the U.S., and the EU. However, the AfD’s more protectionist stance might challenge such policies, urging for more national control over critical industries and economic sectors.
27. Germany’s Digital Sovereignty and Tech Innovation: In addition to broader digitalization efforts, there is growing concern in Germany regarding its digital sovereignty—ensuring that its critical technology infrastructure remains under national control rather than being dominated by non-European tech giants. The election results may accelerate debates over Germany’s technological future, with the CDU likely supporting measures to boost innovation in areas such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and digital infrastructure, but also ensuring that European values and standards are upheld in the process.
28. Public Opinion and Political Polarization: The increasing polarization of Germany’s political landscape, with the rise of far-right parties like the AfD and the ongoing dominance of traditional parties like the CDU, signals a deepening divide in public opinion. Voters are increasingly aligned along ideological lines, with less room for middle-ground compromises. This polarization is likely to continue to shape political debates, making consensus-driven policies more difficult to implement. How the new government manages this tension will play a critical role in fostering national unity.
29. Role of the Media and Political Narratives: The role of the media in shaping public opinion and political narratives will be more critical than ever in this new political era. With the rise of populism and nationalist ideologies, media outlets have a growing influence on how political issues are framed and discussed. The German government’s approach to media freedom, misinformation, and the regulation of digital platforms will be a key issue. The extent to which media outlets foster open, transparent discourse will impact the public’s trust in the political system, especially with the polarization of political narratives.
30. Reevaluating Germany’s Immigration Integration Model: The topic of immigration has been central to political discussions, with both the AfD and CDU calling for stricter immigration policies. The challenge will be in balancing these policies with Germany’s historical role as a destination for refugees and migrants. A potential reform in the integration model, especially with the CDU at the helm, could focus on tightening entry requirements, but also improving the efficiency of integration processes, including language acquisition, vocational training, and cultural adaptation. The success or failure of this approach will shape Germany’s demographic and social fabric in the years to come.
31. Rise of New Political Movements: Beyond the traditional parties, the election results also highlight the potential rise of new political movements, particularly among younger generations who are dissatisfied with the establishment. These movements could further fragment the political scene and introduce new policy priorities, especially around environmental issues, digital rights, and progressive social policies. The challenge for the established parties will be to either co-opt these issues or respond effectively to this new political energy.
32. Germany’s National Security Agenda: As geopolitical tensions rise globally, Germany’s national security agenda will come under scrutiny. Under Merz, there is likely to be a stronger focus on defense capabilities and strengthening alliances within NATO. However, the AfD’s rise represents a growing call for more skepticism toward international cooperation and a return to national sovereignty in security matters. The government’s ability to manage these competing visions for Germany’s role in global security will be a significant factor in shaping the country’s future military and defense strategies.
33. Tensions in the EU’s Eastern Partnership: As Germany navigates its future role in the EU, the question of relations with Eastern European countries could become more complex. With the rise of right-wing populism, some EU member states may seek to recalibrate their approach to issues like EU expansion, migration, and economic support. Germany’s role as a mediator and leader within the EU could be tested, as it balances domestic pressures with the need to maintain unity within the European Union.

As we move into the post-election phase, Germany is poised to experience both continuity and change, with new priorities emerging and old challenges taking on new forms. The decisions made by the incoming government will have profound effects, not only on Germany’s domestic politics but also on its role in Europe and the broader global context.